The impact of macroeconomic factors on residential property prices in the secondary market in Poland during the period 2013–2023

Abstract

Motivation: One of the major issues facing the modern economy is the high cost of real estate, which significantly limits, or even prevents, many people, particularly those from the Z generation, from purchasing their own homes. As a result, the number of individuals who accept the prospects of renting for their entire lives is increasing. This marks a significant change in attitudes towards property ownership in Poland.
Aim: The aim of this study is to identify and evaluate the impact of macroeconomic factors on the average price per 1 m2 of residential properties sold on the secondary market in Poland during the period 2013–2023.
Materials and methods: The study utilised quarterly data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS) during the period from the I quarter of 2013 to the IV quarter of 2023. Based on these data, a regression analysis was conducted to determine the statistical significance of selected macroeconomic variables and to assess their impact on changes in property prices. The accuracy of the model was verified using statistical tests.
Result: The analysis showed that, on average, the price of 1 m2 of residential properties sold on the secondary market in Poland during the period 2013–2023 was significantly influenced by: the number of unemployed, the consumer price indices (CPI), gross domestic product (GDP), and the average monthly gross salary in the national economy. The inclusion of a lagged variable allowed the study to account for the effects of speculative demand. The constructed model demonstrated a high level of fit to empirical data, confirming its usefulness in describing the analysed phenomenon.