Are companies managed by overconfident CEO financially constraint? Investment-cash flow sensitivity approach
Abstract
Research background: Overconfidence is one of the biases and fallacies that affect a cognitive process. Indeed, overconfidence has some serious consequences even in corporate finance. The literature is not consistent as for the impact of overconfidence on investment and financing decisions. Additionally, we include the issue of financial constraints to our analysis as investment-cash flow sensitivity (ICFS) is perceived as the measure of financial constraints.
Purpose of the article: The aim of this paper is to test investment-cash flow sensitivity and financial constraints under managerial overconfidence. We think that companies managed by overconfident managers show a higher relation between cash flows and investment and demonstrate bigger financial constraints.
Methods: In this paper, we test investment-cash flow sensitivity and financial constraints under CEO overconfidence among panel data of Polish private firms. We collect the unique sample of 145 non-listed companies by surveying the CEOs on their overconfidence. We collect the financial data of surveyed companies covering the 2010?2016 period. Total number of observations is 1015.
Findings & Value added: First, we find a positive and higher relation between the investment-cash flow sensitivity for companies managed by overconfident managers which is in line with recent research. As for the financial constraints we find lower level of financial constraints among the companies managed by overconfident man-agers. This might be evidence that despite having lower financial constraints the companies managed by overconfident managers intentionally choose internal funds as the main source of financing and refrain from using external funds. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first empirical study for Polish companies on the relation between CEO overconfidence and financial decisions.
Keywords
CEO overconfidence, investment-cash flow sensitivity, financial constraints
References
- Almeida, H., Campello, M., & Galvao Jr, A. F. (2010). Measurement errors in investment equations. Review of Financial Studies, 23(9). doi: 10.1093/rfs/ hhq058. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhq058
View in Google Scholar - Baker, M., Stein, J. C., & Wurgler, J. (2003). When does the market matter? Stock prices and the investment of equity-dependent firms. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(3). doi: 10.1162/00335530360698478. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1162/00335530360698478
View in Google Scholar - Baker, M., Ruback, R., & Wurgler, J. (2007). Behavioral corporate finance: a survey. In Eckbo, Espen (ed.). Handbook in Corporate Finance: Empirical Corporate Finance. Elsevier. doi: 10.3386/w10863. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w10863
View in Google Scholar - Barros, L. A. B. de C., & Silveira, D. M. A. (2007). Overconfidence, managerial optimism and the determinants of capital structure. SSRN. doi: 10.2139/ssrn. 953273. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.953273
View in Google Scholar - Ben-David, I., Graham, J. R., & Harvey, R. (2007). Managerial overconfidence and corporate policies. NBER Working Paper, 13711. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w13711
View in Google Scholar - Bond, S., & Meghir, C. (1994). Dynamic investment models and the firm’s financial policy. Review of Economic Studies, 61. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2297978
View in Google Scholar - Campbell, C., Johnson, S., Rutherford, J., & Stanley, B. (2011). CEO confidence and forced turnover. Journal of Financial Economics, 101(3). doi: 10.1016/j .jfineco.2011.03.004. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2011.03.004
View in Google Scholar - Carpenter, R. E., Fazzari, S. M., Petersen, B. C., Kashyap, A. K., & Friedman, B. M. (1994). Inventory investment, internal-finance fluctuations, and the business cycle. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2. doi: 10.2307/2534655. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2534655
View in Google Scholar - Carpenter, R. E., Fazzari, S. M., & Petersen, B. C. (1998). Financing constraints and inventory investment: a comparative study with high-frequency panel data. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(4). doi: 10.1162/003465398557799. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1162/003465398557799
View in Google Scholar - Chen, H. J., & Chen, S. J. (2012). Investment-cashflow sensitivity cannot be a good measure of financial constraints: Evidence from the time series. Journal of Financial Economics, 103. doi: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2011.08.009. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1787256
View in Google Scholar - Cleary, S. (1999). The relationship between firm investment and financial status. Journal of Finance, 54. doi: 10.1111/0022-1082.00121. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00121
View in Google Scholar - Doukas, J. A., & Petmezas, D. (2007). Overconfident managers and self-attribution bias. European Financial Management, 13(3). doi: 10.1111/j.1468-036X.2007 .00371.x. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-036X.2007.00371.x
View in Google Scholar - Erickson, T., & Whited, T. M. (2000). Measurement error and the relation between investment and Q. Journal of Political Economy, 108. doi: 10.1086/317670. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/317670
View in Google Scholar - Fazzari, S., Hubbard, R., & Petersen, B. (1988). Financing constraints and corporate investment. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. doi: 10.2307/253 4426. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2534426
View in Google Scholar - Gatchev, V. A., Pulvino, T. C., & Tarhan, V. (2010). The interdependent and intertemporal nature of financial decisions: an application to cash flow sensitivities. Journal of Finance, 65(2). doi: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2009.01549.x. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2009.01549.x
View in Google Scholar - Gervais, S., Heaton, J. B., & Odean, T. (2011). Overconfidence, compensation contracts, and capital budgeting. Journal of Finance, 66(5). doi: 10.1111/j. 1540-6261.2011.01686.x. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2011.01686.x
View in Google Scholar - Glaser, M., Schäfers, P., & Weber, M. (2008). Managerial optimism and corporate investment: is the CEO alone responsible for the relation? SSRN. doi: 10.2139/ssrn.967649. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.967649
View in Google Scholar - Goel, A. M., & Thakor, A. V. (2008). Overconfidence, CEO selection, and corporate governance. Journal of Finance, 63(6). doi: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2008. 01412.x. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2008.01412.x
View in Google Scholar - Gomes, J. F. (2001). Financing investment. American Economic Review, 91. doi: 10.1257/aer.91.5.1263. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.5.1263
View in Google Scholar - Hackbarth, D. (2008). CEO traits and capital structure decisions. Journal of Financial And Quantitative Analysis, 43(4). doi: 10.1017/S002210900001437X. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S002210900001437X
View in Google Scholar - Hadlock, C. J., & Pierce, J. R. (2010). New evidence on measuring financial constraints: moving beyond the KZ index. Review of Financial Studies, 23(5). doi: 10.1093/rfs/hhq009. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhq009
View in Google Scholar - Hayward, M. L. A., & Hambrick, D. C. (1997). Explaining the premiums paid for large acquisitions: evidence of CEO hubris. Administrative Science Quarterly, 42(1). doi: 10.2307/2393810. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2393810
View in Google Scholar - Heaton, J. B. (2002). Managerial optimism and corporate finance. Financial Management, 31(2). doi: 10.2307/3666221. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/3666221
View in Google Scholar - Hennessy, C. A., Levy-Livemore, A., & Whited, T. M. (2007). Testing Q theory with financing frictions. Journal of Financial Economics, 83(3). doi: 10.1016/j. jfineco.2005.12.008. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2005.12.008
View in Google Scholar - Hoshi, T., Kashyap, A. K., & Scharfstein, D. (1991). Corporate structure, liquidity, and investment: evidence from Japanese panel data. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106. doi: 10.2307/2937905. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2937905
View in Google Scholar - Huang, W., Jiang, F., Liu, Z., & Zhang, M. (2011). Agency cost, top executives' overconfidence, and investment-cash flow sensitivity - evidence from listed companies in China. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 19(3). doi: 10.1016/j/ pacfin.2010.12.001. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2010.12.001
View in Google Scholar - Isachenkova, N., & Mickiewicz, T. (2004). Financial Constraints and Corporate Control Structures. Evidence from a Survey of Large Companies in Hungary and Poland. Available at http://www.cass.city.ac.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/ 0004/81733/Isachenkova_Mickiewicz.pdf.
View in Google Scholar - Jackowicz, K., Kozłowski, Ł., & Mielcarz, P. (2016). Financial constraints in Poland. The role of size and political connections. Argumenta Oeconomica, 1(36). doi: 10.15611/Aoe.2016.1.09. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15611/aoe.2016.1.09
View in Google Scholar - Johnson, D. D. P. (2004). Overconfidence and war: the havoc and glory of positive illusions. Harvard University Press. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4159/9780674039162
View in Google Scholar - Kadapakkam, P.-R., Kumar, P., & Riddick, L. (1998). The impact of cash flows and firm size on investment: the international evidence. Journal of Banking and Finance, 22. doi: 10.1016/S0378-4266(97)00059-9. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(97)00059-9
View in Google Scholar - Kaplan, S., & Zingales, L. (1997). Do investment-cash flow sensitivities provide useful measures of financing constraints? Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112. doi: 10.1162.003355397555163. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1162/003355397555163
View in Google Scholar - Kashyap, A. K., Lamont, O. A., & Stein, J. C. (1994). Credit conditions and the cyclical behavior of inventories. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109(3). doi: 10.2307/2118414. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2118414
View in Google Scholar - Konings, J., Rizov, M., & Vandenbussche, H. (2003). Investment and financial constraints in transition economies: micro evidence from Poland, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Romania. Economics Letters, 78 (2), doi: 10.1016/S01 65-1765(02)00210-0. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(02)00210-0
View in Google Scholar - Koo, J.-H., & Yang, D. (2018). Managerial overconfidence, self-attribution bias, and downwardly sticky investment: evidence from Korea. Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, 54. doi: 10.1080/1540496X.2017.1398643. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2017.1398643
View in Google Scholar - Lewellen, J., & Lewellen, K. (2016). Investment and cash flow: new evidence. Journal Of Financial And Quantitative Analysis, 51(4). doi: 10.1017/S0022 10901600065X. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S002210901600065X
View in Google Scholar - Lin, Y., Hu, S., & Chen, M. (2005). Managerial optimism and corporate investment: Some empirical evidence from Taiwan. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 13. doi: 10.106/j.pacfin.2004.12.003. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2004.12.003
View in Google Scholar - Maditinos, D. I., Tsinani, A. V., & Šević, Z. (2015). Managerial optimism and the impact of cash flow sensitivity on corporate investment: the case of Greece. International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research, 8(2).
View in Google Scholar - Malmendier, U., & Tate, G. (2005). CEO overconfidence and corporate investment. Journal of Finance, 60(6). doi: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00813.x. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00813.x
View in Google Scholar - Malmendier, U., & Tate, G. (2008). Who makes acquisitions? CEO overconfidence and the market’s reaction. Journal of Financial Economics, 89. doi: 10.1016/ j.jfineco.2007.07.002 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2007.07.002
View in Google Scholar - Malmendier, U., Tate, G., & Yan, J. (2011). Overconfidence and early-life experiences: The effect of managerial traits on corporate financial policies. Journal of Finance, 66(5). doi: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2011.01685.x. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2011.01685.x
View in Google Scholar - Mizen, P., & Vermeulen, P. (2005). Corporate investment and cash flow sensitivity: what drives the relationship? European Central Bank Working Paper, 485. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.711165
View in Google Scholar - Modigliani, F., & Miller, M. (1958). The cost of capital, corporation finance and the theory of investment. American Economic Review, 48(3).
View in Google Scholar - Mohamed, E., B., Fairchild, R., & Bouri, A. (2014). Investment cash flow sensitivity under managerial optimism: new evidence from NYSE panel data firms. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 19. doi: 10.1016/j. jefas.2014.04.001. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jefas.2014.04.001
View in Google Scholar - Moore, D. A., & Healy, P. J. (2008). The trouble with overconfidence. Psychological Review, 115(2). doi: 10.1037/0033-295X.115.2.502. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295X.115.2.502
View in Google Scholar - Mulier, K., Schoors, K., & Merlevede, B. (2016). Investment-cash flow sensitivity and financial constraints: evidence from unquoted European SMEs. Journal of Banking and Finance, 73. doi: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2016.09.002. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2016.09.002
View in Google Scholar - Paredes, T. A. (2004). Too much pay, too much deference: is CEO overconfidence the product of corporate governance? Washington U. School of Law Working Paper, 04-08-02. doi: 10.2139/ssrn.587162. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.587162
View in Google Scholar - Park, C., & Kim, H. (2011). The effect of managerial overconfidence on leverage. International Business & Economics Research Journal, 8(12). doi: 10.19 030/iber.v8i12.3203. DOI: https://doi.org/10.19030/iber.v8i12.3203
View in Google Scholar - Pikulina, E., Renneboog, L., & Tobler, P. N. (2017). Overconfidence and investment: An experimental approach. Journal of Corporate Finance, 43. doi: 10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2017.01.002. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2017.01.002
View in Google Scholar - Rauh, J. (2006). Investment and financing constraints: evidence from the funding of corporate pension plans. Journal of Finance, 61. doi: 10.1111/j/1540-6261.2006.00829.x. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2006.00829.x
View in Google Scholar - Rihab, B. A., & Lotfi, B. J. (2016). Managerial overconfidence and debt decisions. Journal of Modern Accounting and Auditing, 12(4). doi: 10.17265/1548-6583/2016.04.004. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17265/1548-6583/2016.04.004
View in Google Scholar - Whited, T. M. (1992). Debt, liquidity constraints, and corporate investment: evidence from panel data. Journal of Finance, 47(4). doi: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1992.tb04664.x. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1992.tb04664.x
View in Google Scholar - Whited, T., & Wu, G. (2006). Financial constraints risk. Review of Financial Studies, 19. doi: 10.1093/rfs/hhj012. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhj012
View in Google Scholar - Wrońska-Bukalska, E. (2016). Overconfidence of students and managers – comparative analysis. In Proceedings of the 6th economic & finance conference, OECD Headquarters, Paris. doi: 10.20472/EFC.2016.006.020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.20472/EFC.2016.006.020
View in Google Scholar - Wrońska-Bukalska, E. (2018). Debt Capacity and Capital Structure of the Companies Managed by Overconfident Managers. In Proceedings of the 15 th international scientific conference European financial systems. Brno: Masaryk University.
View in Google Scholar - Zuur, A. F., Ieno, E. N., & Elphick, C. S. (2010). A protocol for data exploration to avoid common statistical problems. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 1(1). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2041-210X.2009.00001.x
View in Google Scholar