Inter-Election Vote Swings for the Turkish Ruling Party: The Impact of Economic Performance and Other Factors
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.12775/EQUIL2011.017Keywords:
elections, vote swing, economic voting, economic performance, AKP, TurkeyAbstract
Inter-election vote swings for the AKP, the incumbent party inTurkey, during 2002, 2004, 2007, 2009 and 2011 elections are decomposed into parts attributable to economic conditions, strategic voting, cost of ruling, incumbency advantage, political realignment and other factors. For this purpose a vote equation, fitted to data covering twenty-seven National Assembly, Senate, and Provincial Council elections, held between 1950 and 2011 is used. The results show the pivotal role played by the economy on the political fortunes of incumbent parties.
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References
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Akarca, A. T., 2010. ?Analysis of the 2009 Turkish Election Results from an Economic Voting Perspective,? European Research Studies Journal 13, 2010, pp. 3-38.
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Chang, E. C. C., Golden, M. A. and Hill, S. J. 2010. ?Legislative Malfeasance and Political Accountability,? World Politics 62, pp. 177-220.
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Akarca, A. T., 2010. ?Analysis of the 2009 Turkish Election Results from an Economic Voting Perspective,? European Research Studies Journal 13, 2010, pp. 3-38.
Akarca, A. T., 2009. ?A Prediction for AKP?s Nationwide Vote Share in the 29 March 2009 Turkish Local Elections,? ?ktisat ?şletme ve Finans 24 (276), pp. 7-22.
Akarca, A. T. and Başlevent, C., 2009. ?Inter-party Vote Movements in Turkey: The sources of AKP Votes in 2007,? ?ktisat ?şletme ve Finans 24 (285), pp. 32-47.
Akarca, A. T. and Tansel, A., 2007. ?Social and Economic Determinants of Turkish Voter Choice in the 1995 Parliamentary Election,? Electoral Studies 26, pp. 633-647.
Akarca, A. T. and Tansel, A., 2006. ?Economic Performance and Political Outcomes: An Analysis of the Turkish Parliamentary and Local Election Results Between 1950 and 2004,? Public Choice 129, pp. 77-105.
Başlevent, C. and Akarca, A. T., 2009. ?Micro Evidence on Inter-Party Vote Movements in Turkey: Who Voted for AKP in 2002?? Paper presented at the 5th ECPR General Conference, Potsdam, Germany, 10-12 September 2009.
Chang, E. C. C., Golden, M. A. and Hill, S. J. 2010. ?Legislative Malfeasance and Political Accountability,? World Politics 62, pp. 177-220.
Durbin, J. 1970. ?Testing for Serial Correlation in Least Squares Regression When Some of the Regressors Are Lagged Dependent Variables,? Econometrica 38, pp. 410-421
Ferraz, C. and Finan, F. 2008. ?Exposing Corrupt Politicians: The Effect of Brazil?s Publicly Released Audits on Electoral Outcomes,? Quarterly Journal of Economics 123, pp. 703?745.
Lewis-Beck, M. S . and Paldam, M., 2000. ?Economic Voting: An Introduction,? Electoral Studies 19, pp. 113-121.
Lewis-Beck, M. S. and Stegmaier, M., 2000. ?Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes,? Annual Review of Political Science 3, pp. 183-219.
Tuncer, E., 2009. 29 Mart 2009 ?l Genel Meclisi ve Belediye Seçimleri: Say?sal ve Siyasal De?erlendirme (29 March 2009 Provincial General Council and Municipality Elections: A Quantitative and Political Evaluation). TESAV: Ankara, Turkey
Tuncer, E., 2007. 22 Temmuz 2007 Milletvekili Genel Seçimleri: Say?sal ve Siyasal De?erlendirme (22 July 2007 Elections for Members of Parliament: A Quantitative and Political Evaluation). TESAV: Ankara, Turkey
Tuncer, E. and Kasapbaş, C., 2004. 28 Mart 2004 ?l Genel Meclisi ve Belediye Seçimleri: Say?sal ve Siyasal De?erlendirme (28 March 2004 Provincial General Assembly and Municipality Elections: A Quantitative and Political Evaluation). TESAV: Ankara, Turkey.
Tuncer, E., 2002. Osmanl??dan Günümüze Seçimler: 1877-1999 (Elections From the Ottomans to the Present: 1877-1999). TESAV: Ankara, Turkey.
White, H., 1980. ?A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity,? Econometrica 48, pp. 817-838.
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Published
2011-09-30
How to Cite
Akarca, A. T. (2011). Inter-Election Vote Swings for the Turkish Ruling Party: The Impact of Economic Performance and Other Factors. Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, 6(3), 7–26. https://doi.org/10.12775/EQUIL2011.017
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Section
The State and the Crisis
