Industrial business cycle and the cyclical fluctuations of sold industrial output according to PAC

Authors

  • Rafał Kasperowicz Poznan University of Economics

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.12775/EQUIL.2010.005

Keywords:

business cycle, industrial fluctuations, leading indicators

Abstract

The first aim of the paper is to identify business cycle in the Polish industry and in departments of the industry according to PAC. The second aim is the re-examination of the co-variability between the calculated fluctuations. When identifying the fluctuations, first one has to purify the time-series of incidental and seasonal fluctuations. According to that the time-series underwent adjustment procedure of seasonal correction Census X11. This way Henderson?s curves which reflect trends and seasonal fluctuations at the same time were obtained. The next step was to state the values of trends. To establish these values the method of stochastic trend estimation, which is called Hodrick-Prescott?s filter was used. Dividing empirical values of Henderson?s curves by the implementation arising from a use of HP we get (after multiplying by 100) a series showing percentage deviations form the trend line, which means seasonal fluctuations.The plan of the paper is as follows: introduction, section 1 definition of business cycle and data, section 2 with econometric methodology, section 3 with empirical analysis, and the conclusions.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Barczyk R., Kowalczyk Z. (1993), Metody badania koniunktury gospodarczej, Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa- Poznań
Bittnerowa E. (1996), Ekonomika i programowanie rozwoju przemysłu, Akademia Ekonomiczna w Poznaniu, Poznań
Bohem E. A. (1998), A Review of Some Methodological Issues in Identifing and Analysing Business Cycles, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, Working Paper No. 26/98
Burns A. F., Mitchell W. C. (1946), Measuring Business Cycles, Studies in Business Cycles, nr 2, NBER, New York
Cogley T., Nason J. M. (1995), Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 19(1-2), January-February
Diebold F.X., Rudebusch G.D. (1994), Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective, NBER, February
Diedold F. X., Rudebusch G. D. (1989), Scoring the Leading Indicators, Journal of Business, vol. 62, No. 3
Epstein P. (1999), Wesley Mitchel?s Grand Design and Its Critics: The Theory and Measurement of Business Cycles, Journal of Economic Issues, No. 3, September
Evans M.K. (2003), Practical Business Forecasting, Blackwell Publishers
Hodrick R. J., Prescott E. C. (1997), Postwar U. S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation, (Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 29, No. 1, February 1997) [w:] Hartley J. E., Hoover K. D., Salyer K. D. (1998), Real business cycles, Routledge London and New York
Kazmier N. J., Pohl N. F. (1984), Basic Statistics for Business and Economics, McGraw-Hill Publishing Company
Kruszka M. (2002), Wyodrębnianie wahań cyklicznych, maszynopis powielony, AE Poznań
Kydland F. E., Prescott E. C. (1990), Business Cycles: Real Facts and Monetary Myth, Federal Reserve Bank of Mineapolis Quarterly Reviev
Lubiński M. (2002), Analiza koniunktury i badanie rynków, Dom Wydawniczy Elipsa, Warszawa
Lucas Jr R. E.(1995), Understanding Business Cycles [w:] F. E. Kydland (ed), Business Cycle Theory, The International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing Company, UK
Marcellino M. (2004), Leading Indicators: What Have We Learned?, IEP-Bocconi University, IGIER and CEPR, May
Mills T.C. (2003), Modeling Trends and Cycles in Economic Time Series, Loughborough University
Mintz I. (1969), Dating Postwar Business Cycles: Methods and Their Application to Western Germany, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York
Mintz I. (1972), Dating American Growth Cycles, w: The Business Cycle Today, red. V. Zarnowitz, NBER, New York
Mintz I. (1972), Dating American Growth Cycles, w: The Business Cycle Today, red. V. Zarnowitz, NBER New York
Nelson C. R., Plosser C. I. (1982), Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series; Some Evidence and Implications, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 10
Pedersen T. M. (2002), Alternative Linear and Non-Linear Detrending Techniques: A Comparative analysis based on Euro-Zone Data, Copenhagen: Minystry of Economic and Business Affairs
Rainelli M. (1996), Ekonomia przemysłowa, Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa
Rekowski M. (red.) (1997), Koniunktura gospodarcza Polski. Analiza grup produktowych, Wydawnictwo AKADEMIA, Poznań
Rekowski M. (red.) (1997), Koniunktura gospodarcza Polski. Analiza grup produktowych, Wydawnictwo AKADEMIA, Poznań
Rekowski M. (red.) (2003), Wskaźniki wyprzedzające jako metoda prognozowania koniunktury Polsce, Wydawnictwo Akademii Ekonomicznej w Poznaniu, Poznań
Zarnovitz V. (1991), What is a Business Cycle?, NBER, Working Paper 3863, October

Downloads

Published

30-06-2010

Issue

Section

Policy under high volatility of economic environment

How to Cite

Kasperowicz, R. (2010). Industrial business cycle and the cyclical fluctuations of sold industrial output according to PAC. Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, 4(1), 65-77. https://doi.org/10.12775/EQUIL.2010.005

Similar Articles

211-220 of 220

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.